2013-01-25 source: shipping online.com
THE Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI) says there is reason to
believe 2013 will be a turning point for the recovery of the international
shipping market.
SISI predicts the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will rise from 904 points to somewhere
between 1,200 to 1,500 points with a growth faster than 30 per cent, Xinhua
reports.
The report said world economic recovery was slow in 2012 and growth is
expected to be weak this year. Container shipping market's recovery is
satisfactory with the China Containerised Freight Index (CCFI) up 18.44 per
cent to 1,174 points. But dry bulk plunged 40 per cent year on year to a 10-
year low of 904 points.
SISI said carriers are more prudent on vessel investment after having
experienced years of loss. Many of them are scrapping more ships and even
selling new ones to improve financial structure.
As new growth gains momentum this year, regional trade will become stronger
and near-sea shipping will take up a greater proportion of sea freight volume.
Meanwhile, more shippers are ordering new ships to form their own fleets. In
future, shippers will join traditional carriers in the shipping market. The two
will also tend to set up joint ventures in offering shipping services.
As vessel sizes grow, transport costs of mega carriers are becoming less,
providing more advantages. This will put greater pressure on small and
medium carriers. Market monopoly trends will become stronger, said the
report.
As a result of market downturn and rising costs, carriers are accelerating the
dismantling of old ships to optimise their fleets. They are also focussing more
on technological innovation and the use of new energy sources in an effort to
cut costs and enhance service.
In 2013, stimulated by the rate increase plans of the carriers, the CCFI is
expected to be on an average level of 1,150 points.
As major economies are launching more infrastructure investments, the dry
bulk shipping market is expected to see modest growth this year. Dry bulk
tonnage is predicted to grow 6.61 per cent, but will grow more slowly than
before, said the SISI report.